As macroeconomic and geopolitical factors converge, private equity firms are rethinking their exposure to global pressures, particularly in the form of tariffs and trade policy volatility. These forces are reshaping how deals are sourced, evaluated, and structured.
Sector Resilience and Rotation Toward Services
Certain sectors, especially software and business services, are being viewed as more resilient in the face of tariff uncertainty. These businesses often have fewer physical goods crossing borders and are therefore less exposed to direct tariff costs. However, inflationary effects can still impact downstream margins, particularly when cost inputs rise.
Geographic Diversification to Mitigate Concentration Risk
Firms are exploring geographic expansion to mitigate concentration risk. For example, a Canadian portfolio company may look to grow into the U.S. or Europe, not only for market opportunity but also to hedge against changes in trade policy. This is particularly relevant for funds with sector exposure in manufacturing, logistics, and consumer goods.
Tariffs as a Deal Structuring Variable
Deloitte’s 2024 M&A Trends Survey notes that nearly 1 in 4 cross-border M&A deals now includes tariff-adjusted valuation scenarios, underscoring the need for adaptive underwriting models.
In some M&A processes, the impact of tariffs is so significant that buyers are submitting dual bids, one assuming normal conditions and another adjusted for tariff exposure. This practice underscores just how embedded macro risk has become in PE underwriting.
Building Resilient, Globally-Aware Portfolios
Over 60% of private equity firms in North America cited geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts as a top risk in 2025, according to Preqin. In response, firms are embedding geopolitical analysis into due diligence.
Blackstone, for example, sees volatility from trade negotiations as an investment opportunity. CEO Stephen Schwarzman noted that uncertain markets often present the best time to deploy capital. With $177 billion in dry powder, Blackstone continues to act on global dislocation opportunities. He also revealed plans to invest up to $500 billion in Europe over the next decade, citing improving macro conditions, deeper government spending, and favorable valuations.
PE firms are taking a more analytical, scenario-based approach to global risk. Cross-functional diligence teams, including tax, trade compliance, and political risk analysts, are increasingly part of deal evaluation.
While the full impact of new tariffs may not yet be fully felt, firms should prepare for the possibility of more material disruptions as the year progresses. As such, firms are wise to hedge structurally now and factor in the potential downstream effects of trade disruptions to position themselves to respond with speed and flexibility.
How GSCF Can Help
GSCF helps clients navigate tariff volatility and geographic uncertainty by offering trade finance solutions that adapt to global risk. Whether structuring cross-border receivables programs or supporting localized funding needs, our solutions are designed to scale with your strategy and keep capital flowing despite external headwinds.
Now is the time to assess and understand your alternative financing options so when market signals shift or disruptions hit, you’re ready to act with confidence. GSCF ensures your financing structures are sound, flexible, and ready to deploy when timing is critical.