Uncertainty continues to define the private equity (PE) landscape in 2025. From fluctuating macroeconomic signals to geopolitical shifts and evolving sector dynamics, PE firms face a complex set of variables when evaluating opportunities. The result? A significant widening in bid-ask spreads and a more cautious approach to deploying capital.
Bid-Ask Spread Widening: A Reflection of Market Ambiguity
According to PitchBook, the average global bid-ask spread in private equity widened by over 25% from 2021 to 2024, especially in tech and consumer sectors. This has further complicated deal structuring and contributed to delayed timelines.
Across many sectors, we’re seeing deal activity slow not because of lack of interest but because buyers and sellers are operating from very different assumptions. Sellers often anchor to past valuations, while buyers bake in risk premiums, recession fears and uncertainty around growth trajectories. This disconnect has created friction, especially in sectors with less predictable earnings.
Dry Powder Preservation and GFC Parallels
Bain & Company reports that global private equity dry powder reached $2.6 trillion by early 2025, a record high. Despite this, investors remain selective, deploying capital into high-conviction deals while waiting for clearer market signals.
Many funds are holding capital for what they consider high-conviction bets, deals that resemble post-2008 dislocation opportunities. During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), quality assets were sold off under pressure. Some investors are preparing for similar opportunities to emerge, especially if credit markets tighten or distressed assets hit the market.
The IPO Slowdown and Extended Private Holding Periods
The initial public offering (IPO) window remains muted, pushing more companies to extend their time in the private markets. This has reshaped expectations around hold periods and fund life cycles. In turn, firms are focusing more heavily on value creation strategies to sustain long-term growth and remain flexible with exit timing.
Secondaries and Strategic Sales as Exit Alternatives
With public market exits limited, funds are increasingly looking to secondaries and strategic buyers for liquidity. Secondary transactions provide a way to return capital to LPs and generate DPI (distributions to paid-in capital), which is critical in today’s cautious fundraising environment. Strategic sales, particularly to well capitalized corporates, offer an attractive path when IPOs are off the table.
Signs of Rebound: A Blackstone Perspective
There are reasons for optimism. Blackstone’s Head of North America Private Equity, Martin Brand, recently noted that the firm expects “an improved environment for mergers & acquisitions and a pickup in IPO activity” in 2025, anticipating the ability to “sell and exit more than twice the number of private equity investments” compared to the prior year. This signals renewed market momentum and an opening of the exit window.
What This Means for 2025 and Beyond
The private equity market is not frozen, but it has become more selective. Funds are recalibrating valuation models, incorporating broader risk scenarios, and emphasizing discipline in underwriting. Precision, patience, and a well-prepared pipeline are more important than ever.
How GSCF Can Help
GSCF supports private equity firms by providing working capital solutions that bring flexibility and liquidity to their portfolios. Our platform enables real-time visibility across receivables, streamlined onboarding of suppliers and buyers, and scalable financing programs tailored to uncertain markets. We help clients unlock value even when exits are delayed or fundraising is challenging. Critically, GSCF can move faster than traditional lenders, delivering funding quickly when timing matters most. This speed and agility make us a strategic partner for firms looking to act decisively in a volatile environment.