Category: Connected Capital Blog

As macroeconomic and geopolitical factors converge, private equity firms are rethinking their exposure to global pressures, particularly in the form of tariffs and trade policy volatility. These forces are reshaping how deals are sourced, evaluated, and structured. 

Sector Resilience and Rotation Toward Services 

Certain sectors, especially software and business services, are being viewed as more resilient in the face of tariff uncertainty. These businesses often have fewer physical goods crossing borders and are therefore less exposed to direct tariff costs. However, inflationary effects can still impact downstream margins, particularly when cost inputs rise. 

Geographic Diversification to Mitigate Concentration Risk 

Firms are exploring geographic expansion to mitigate concentration risk. For example, a Canadian portfolio company may look to grow into the U.S. or Europe, not only for market opportunity but also to hedge against changes in trade policy. This is particularly relevant for funds with sector exposure in manufacturing, logistics, and consumer goods. 

Tariffs as a Deal Structuring Variable 

Deloitte’s 2024 M&A Trends Survey notes that nearly 1 in 4 cross-border M&A deals now includes tariff-adjusted valuation scenarios, underscoring the need for adaptive underwriting models. 

In some M&A processes, the impact of tariffs is so significant that buyers are submitting dual bids, one assuming normal conditions and another adjusted for tariff exposure. This practice underscores just how embedded macro risk has become in PE underwriting. 

Building Resilient, Globally-Aware Portfolios 

Over 60% of private equity firms in North America cited geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts as a top risk in 2025, according to Preqin. In response, firms are embedding geopolitical analysis into due diligence. 

Blackstone, for example, sees volatility from trade negotiations as an investment opportunity. CEO Stephen Schwarzman noted that uncertain markets often present the best time to deploy capital. With $177 billion in dry powder, Blackstone continues to act on global dislocation opportunities. He also revealed plans to invest up to $500 billion in Europe over the next decade, citing improving macro conditions, deeper government spending, and favorable valuations. 

PE firms are taking a more analytical, scenario-based approach to global risk. Cross-functional diligence teams, including tax, trade compliance, and political risk analysts, are increasingly part of deal evaluation. 

While the full impact of new tariffs may not yet be fully felt, firms should prepare for the possibility of more material disruptions as the year progresses. As such, firms are wise to hedge structurally now and factor in the potential downstream effects of trade disruptions to position themselves to respond with speed and flexibility. 

How GSCF Can Help  

GSCF helps clients navigate tariff volatility and geographic uncertainty by offering trade finance solutions that adapt to global risk. Whether structuring cross-border receivables programs or supporting localized funding needs, our solutions are designed to scale with your strategy and keep capital flowing despite external headwinds. 

Now is the time to assess and understand your alternative financing options so when market signals shift or disruptions hit, you’re ready to act with confidence. GSCF ensures your financing structures are sound, flexible, and ready to deploy when timing is critical. 

Uncertainty continues to define the private equity (PE) landscape in 2025. From fluctuating macroeconomic signals to geopolitical shifts and evolving sector dynamics, PE firms face a complex set of variables when evaluating opportunities. The result? A significant widening in bid-ask spreads and a more cautious approach to deploying capital. 

Bid-Ask Spread Widening: A Reflection of Market Ambiguity 

According to PitchBook, the average global bid-ask spread in private equity widened by over 25% from 2021 to 2024, especially in tech and consumer sectors. This has further complicated deal structuring and contributed to delayed timelines. 

Across many sectors, we’re seeing deal activity slow not because of lack of interest but because buyers and sellers are operating from very different assumptions. Sellers often anchor to past valuations, while buyers bake in risk premiums, recession fears and uncertainty around growth trajectories. This disconnect has created friction, especially in sectors with less predictable earnings. 

Dry Powder Preservation and GFC Parallels 

Bain & Company reports that global private equity dry powder reached $2.6 trillion by early 2025, a record high. Despite this, investors remain selective, deploying capital into high-conviction deals while waiting for clearer market signals. 

Many funds are holding capital for what they consider high-conviction bets, deals that resemble post-2008 dislocation opportunities. During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), quality assets were sold off under pressure. Some investors are preparing for similar opportunities to emerge, especially if credit markets tighten or distressed assets hit the market. 

The IPO Slowdown and Extended Private Holding Periods 

The initial public offering (IPO) window remains muted, pushing more companies to extend their time in the private markets. This has reshaped expectations around hold periods and fund life cycles. In turn, firms are focusing more heavily on value creation strategies to sustain long-term growth and remain flexible with exit timing. 

Secondaries and Strategic Sales as Exit Alternatives 

With public market exits limited, funds are increasingly looking to secondaries and strategic buyers for liquidity. Secondary transactions provide a way to return capital to LPs and generate DPI (distributions to paid-in capital), which is critical in today’s cautious fundraising environment. Strategic sales, particularly to well capitalized corporates, offer an attractive path when IPOs are off the table. 

Signs of Rebound: A Blackstone Perspective 

There are reasons for optimism. Blackstone’s Head of North America Private Equity, Martin Brand, recently noted that the firm expects “an improved environment for mergers & acquisitions and a pickup in IPO activity” in 2025, anticipating the ability to “sell and exit more than twice the number of private equity investments” compared to the prior year. This signals renewed market momentum and an opening of the exit window. 

What This Means for 2025 and Beyond 

The private equity market is not frozen, but it has become more selective. Funds are recalibrating valuation models, incorporating broader risk scenarios, and emphasizing discipline in underwriting. Precision, patience, and a well-prepared pipeline are more important than ever. 

How GSCF Can Help  

GSCF supports private equity firms by providing working capital solutions that bring flexibility and liquidity to their portfolios. Our platform enables real-time visibility across receivables, streamlined onboarding of suppliers and buyers, and scalable financing programs tailored to uncertain markets. We help clients unlock value even when exits are delayed or fundraising is challenging. Critically, GSCF can move faster than traditional lenders, delivering funding quickly when timing matters most. This speed and agility make us a strategic partner for firms looking to act decisively in a volatile environment.